Mark Wilde: Containerboard Prices Matter, Box Prices Matter More

Last weekend, the leading trade paper estimated that $70-100/ton of a September containerboard price hike has already taken hold. Producers have announced increases of $80-140, marking the third round of hikes in 2026. The trade paper increase was larger than many expected. The dramatic tightening in the market reflects 3 factors: (1) ~4MM tons of mill closures in 2025 (~10% of NA capacity), (2) Significant cost-push pressure, especially from energy & wastepaper, (3) stabilization/modest improvement in downstream corrugated box demand. After nearly 4yrs of negative y/y comp’s, box volumes have inflected in recent months.

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